Market at a Glance

 Dow 45960.11 | S&P 6477.16 | NASDAQ 21408.08 | Russell 2K 2493.32 | NYSE 21843.98 | Value Line Arith 12187.78

Seasonal: Bullish. April is the 2nd best month for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and 4th best for NASDAQ (since 1971). DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months” end in April. The Seasonal MACD Sell signal can trigger as early as April 1 this year. In midterm years April’s performance has been weaker ranking #7 for DJIA and S&P 500 and #9 NASDAQ. Average performance in midterm years ranges from -1.1% by NASDAQ to 0.4% by DJIA.

Fundamental: Fog of war. War with Iran has triggered a surge in energy prices which only compounds pre-existing inflation woes. Q1 GDP estimated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently stands at just 2.0%, down from earlier estimates just above 3%. Weekly jobless claims remain subdued, although ticking slightly higher to 210,000 as of today’s release (March 26). Unemployment rate remains reasonable stable at 4.4%. Corporate earnings forecasts broadly remain positive, but some businesses could be hit harder by higher energy costs than others. Overall, data has been softer. The longer the Iran war drags on, the greater the economic impact will likely become.

Technical: Pullback/Correction. From their respective all-time closing highs to their low closes on March 20 or 26, DJIA was down -9.2%, S&P 500, -7.2%, NASDAQ -10.6%, and Russell 2000 -10.3%. Using the widely accepted 10% decline as the threshold for a correction, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have met the definition. DJIA and S&P 500 have not. Russell 2000 has the most encouraging chart as its 200-day moving average has held. DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have all closed below their respective 200-day moving averages. Key support levels to watch are DJIA 45,000, S&P 500 at 6200, and NASDAQ 20200. An across-the-board breakdown through key support levels would be the most bearish scenario.

Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. The Fed’s job has gotten much more difficult with the jump in energy prices. Based upon the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for an interest rate cut later this year have fallen to effectively zero and the odds of a rate increase are now rising. This could potentially be signaling a significant shift in Fed policy. Something the market is not likely to respond well to. If inflation metrics continue to climb, the Fed could be forced to raise interest rates. The market would not likely respond well to a shift back to tightening monetary policy.

Sentiment: Retreating. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 39.3%. Correction advisors are at 35.7% and Bearish advisors were 25.0% as of their March 25 release. Compared to last month, bullish sentiment has fallen substantially and is now at the lowest level since May 2025. The corresponding increases in correction and bearish advisors are approaching levels that have historically correlated with the end of past pullbacks/corrections. It would likely take new market lows or a test of most recent lows to push the bearish and correction advisors’ numbers higher and provide a clearer sentiment signal.