Market at a Glance

Dow 43386.84 | S&P 6141.02 | NASDAQ 20167.91 | Russell 2K 2172.11 | NYSE 20256.20 | Value Line Arith 11225.79

Seasonal: Neutral. July is the first month of NASDAQ’s “Worst Months,” but over the last 21 years it has been the #1 NASDAQ month and #2 for DJIA and S&P 500. In post-election years, July is #1 for DJIA and S&P 500 and #2 for NASDAQ. Most of July’s gains usually occur in the first half of the month. NASDAQ’s Midyear “Christmas in July” rally ends around July 14. 

Fundamental: Mixed. Q1 GDP was surprisingly revised 0.3% lower to –0.5% after being previously revised higher. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q2 GDP has retreated to 3.4% as of its June 18 update but is still a brisk rebound from Q1. May’s employment report was softer with 139,000 monthly job gains while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Geopolitical tensions have eased with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but Gaza, Ukraine-Russia, and various paused tariff deadlines remain.

Technical: Breaking Out? NASDAQ 100 is trading at new all-time highs. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Comp traded above their respective old all-time closing highs today. DJIA is modestly lagging behind but appears to also be on track to at least test its previous highs. Technology is clearly leading once again. This year’s NASDAQ Midyear rally is likely to provide opportunities for additional new all-time highs.

Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. Another meeting has passed with no change in interest rates or overall policy. After being late to raise rates as inflation soared in 2021 and 2022, it is looking increasingly likely that the Fed will be late to cut as well. The Fed’s concern about the impact of tariffs may be out of place as the tariffs would be a one-time price increase and would likely be transitory. The consensus for two interest rate reductions later this year is increasingly looking less likely, barring some new “crisis” to compel Fed action.

Sentiment: Neutral. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 38.8%. Correction advisors are at 32.6% and Bearish advisors were at 28.6% as of their June 24 release. The relatively low number of Bullish advisors with the major indexes creeping closer to record highs, suggests the rally can easily continue as long as headlines remain subdued. When the crowd turns bullish and the fear of missing out kicks in, it will be time to be more concerned about sentiment. Until then, sentiment appears supportive of further market gains.