Market at a Glance

Dow 46734.61 | S&P 6738.44 | NASDAQ 22941.80 | Russell 2K 2482.66 | NYSE 21623.82 | Value Line Arith 12182.69

Seasonal: Bullish. November is the best DJIA and S&P 500 month of the year since 1950, second best NASDAQ month (since 1971). November is the first month of the “Best Six/Eight Months” and the best three consecutive month span, November to January. In post-election years, November remains a solid performer with average performance ranging from 1.6% from DJIA to 2.2% from NASDAQ. Seven-trading day Halloween Trade spans the last four days of October and the first three of November.

Fundamental: Mixed. According to the most recent update (October 17), the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q3 GDP is up to 3.9% and trending higher, but employment data has been soft and accompanied by negative revisions. The Fed is on course to cut interest rates, but inflation is still running above target. The Federal government is shutdown, at least partially, while tariff concerns, and the Russian-Ukraine war are still ongoing. In the near-term, more volatility and choppiness are likely as headlines swing from positive to negative.

Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all logged new all-time closing highs this month. Most occurred near the beginning of the month. During the October 10th market selloff indexes tested their respective 50-day moving averages and then promptly rebounded. Market dips have repeatedly been brief and relatively shallow. There could be another headline-driven retest of 50-day moving averages, but it will likely be followed by another rebound and more all-time closing highs. A meaningful break below October 10th closes could be a concern.

Monetary: 4.00 – 4.25%. Absent some key economic data, the Fed’s job has only gotten more challenging in recent weeks. Current interest rate expectations strongly suggest at least two more 0.25% cuts by the end of the year. Potential benefits of lower rates appear to be already arriving with mortgage rates retreating to their lowest level in about a year. Refinance demand has also surged.

Sentiment: Neutral. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 52.8%. Correction advisors are up to 32.1% and Bearish advisors were at 15.1% as of their October 22 release. The largest change in the past four weeks has been in the Correction advisors increasing in count from 24.5%. The decrease in Bullish advisors was adequate to undo the cautious stance from last month. Overall, sentiment appears to support a continued, yet selective approach to buying. The rather sizable number of “not” bulls could quickly get pulled back should the indexes break out and close at new all-time highs again.