Market at a Glance

Dow 42215.73 | S&P 5912.17 | NASDAQ 19175.87 | Russell 2K 2074.78 | NYSE 19743.85 | Value Line Arith 10872.06

Seasonal: Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months.” NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell signal can occur anytime on or after June 2, 2025. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have performed best in June with average gains of 1.0% and 0.8% respectively. June ranks #11 for DJIA (–0.2%) and # 9 for S&P 500 (+0.2%) since 1950. In post-election years, June is also #11 DJIA and #9 S&P 500, but average performance weakens to –1.0% and –0.5% respectively while Russell 2000 improves to 1.2% and NASDAQ eases to 0.8%. 

Fundamental: Mixed. Q1 GDP was revised 0.1% higher but remained negative at –0.2% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q2 GDP has retreated to 2.2% as of its May 27 update. Headline CPI continues to slowly retreat yet remains above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Labor market metrics are holding up with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and monthly jobs gains of 177,000 in April. Paused tariffs put in place under IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) are being challenged in court but other legal paths appear to exist for the administration to continue using tariffs.

Technical: Consolidating? DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 have all reclaimed their respective 50-day moving averages. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have climbed even higher and have pushed above their 200-day moving averages, but all four indexes have traded modestly lower or sideways since around mid-May. Near-term support levels around the May 9th closes are DJIA 41250, S&P 500 5660, NASDAQ 17930 could come into play.

Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. Following their May meeting, the Fed confirmed that they are still in no rush to resume cutting rates as inflation remains elevated and the labor market is reasonably firm. As of today, May 29, the odds for a June rate cut are effectively zero according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Arguably, the Fed was late to act when inflation began surging in 2021 and they will likely be late again.

Sentiment: Neutral. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 41.5%. Correction advisors are at 32.1% and Bearish advisors were at 26.4% as of their May 28 release. The improvement in the number of bulls is encouraging while the number of remaining bear and correction advisors leaves room for the market to continue to rally as overall sentiment is not excessively bullish.